China's National Tax Revenue Decreases by 670 Billion
The economy has indeed shown some not-so-good signals, but recently, from a series of national measures, it is evident that our approach to rescuing the economy has undergone a significant change.
A few days ago, the Ministry of Finance released tax data for the first eight months of this year, which surprisingly decreased by more than 670 billion yuan compared to the same period last year.
Among them, personal income tax decreased by 5.2%, corporate income tax decreased by 5%, and value-added tax decreased by 4.9%. This indicates that the income situation for both individuals and businesses is not ideal. Consumption tax only increased by 4.2%, while vehicle purchase tax plummeted by 9.6%.
So, can we fill this gap through non-tax revenue?
Although non-tax revenue has surged by 11.7%, adding nearly 280 billion yuan, it is still far from enough to compensate for the decrease in tax revenue.
The consumption situation is indeed not very optimistic, with retail sales in August growing by only 2.1% year-on-year.
During this year's Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, local tour orders accounted for more than 50%, a higher proportion than during the Dragon Boat Festival. Province-wide hotel orders exceeded 50%, and orders for only one-night stays exceeded 80%.
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In addition, the number of passengers sent by railways decreased by 10.5% compared to the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2019.
Clearly, many people either reduced their travel arrangements or just spent time on short-distance and intra-provincial tours, which is undoubtedly a form of consumption downgrading.
Furthermore, there is a noticeable trend of price reduction. Among the top 100 destination cities for online reservations, 30% of hotel prices are at the same level as the off-season, and the average price of three-star hotels is 20% cheaper than the same period last year.During the Mid-Autumn holiday, there has been a decrease in demand for goods, and prices have also fallen. The box office revenue has even plummeted by 62% compared to the Mid-Autumn National Day holiday last year.
When consumption is sluggish, should we vigorously stimulate it? Will consumption pick up if we issue enough consumption vouchers?
Fortunately, we have seen a change in the country's approach, with the recent introduction of 24 measures to promote employment. Undoubtedly, only when employment increases and income rises can consumption be stimulated.
In addition, the country has recently lowered reserve requirements and interest rates. Some people in the real estate industry may say that this is to stimulate the housing market. But don't overthink it; this is clearly not aimed at stimulating the housing market. On the contrary, recent policies are more about encouraging funds to enter the stock market.
In the past few days, we have seen the A-share market take off, and everyone's enthusiasm has been reignited.
If the capital market can move into a bull market, it will also boost everyone's confidence in consumption.
It seems that the country's approach has changed, but I believe that the current approach is more effective.
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