Before the National Day holiday, A-shares continued to rise; after the holiday, how the market will perform has become the focus of investors.

Regarding the trend of A-shares after the holiday, there is a significant increase in consensus among domestic and foreign institutions: foreign institutions such as Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, UBS, and Bank of America Securities have intensively upgraded their ratings on Chinese stocks to "overweight" and have tactically shifted from H-shares to A-shares; domestic securities analyst teams generally agree that the market trend after the holiday will continue, and the stock market's money-making effect is still strong, with some securities firms believing that the market will "rise broadly first and then differentiate."

Foreign institutions: Intensively upgrade Chinese stocks to "overweight"

During the National Day holiday, as Chinese assets represented by Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong stocks rose sharply, foreign institutions intensively released reports to upgrade their ratings on Chinese stocks.

Goldman Sachs' equity strategy team in the research department upgraded the rating on Chinese stocks to "overweight" in the latest report, raising the target prices for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index. Goldman Sachs' Chief China Equity Strategist, Liu Jingjin, said that A-shares are currently preferred.

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Goldman Sachs believes that the introduction of coordinated and powerful policies in China has triggered a significant rebound in the stock market. The MSCI China Index has risen by 34% from its low point in mid-September, with a year-to-date increase of 31%, making it one of the best-performing indices globally. In Goldman Sachs' view, the extraordinary increase in the Chinese market is catalyzed by a combination of decisive policy measures, oversold funds in the past period, valuation repair in the Chinese stock market, and underweight positions in the Chinese market by hedge funds and other funds.

Goldman Sachs stated that there is still room for further increases in Chinese stocks. The institution raised its target levels for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index over the next 12 months from 66 points and 4,000 points to 84 points and 4,600 points, respectively, which means there is still room for a total return increase of 15% to 18%.

BlackRock Investment Institute said in its weekly market commentary that it would upgrade the rating on Chinese stocks from "neutral" to "moderately overweight" in the short term. The institution believes that even after the sharp rise before the holiday, the discount of Chinese stocks relative to developed market stocks is still close to historical levels, and there may be significant fiscal policies to be introduced subsequently, prompting investors to re-enter the market, and there is still room for moderate increases in Chinese stocks in the short term.

UBS China Equity Strategy Research Head Wang Zonghao said that the target price for the MSCI China Index was raised, and a tactical shift was made from H-shares to A-shares, "Our conclusion is that the market may have more room to rise, especially in the short term." Wang Zonghao believes that A-shares may outperform H-shares in the short term.

Bank of America Securities believes that the global fund position in China looks "full" based on its platform fund data analysis. In the past two weeks, data from Bank of America's platform shows that long funds have net purchased Chinese stocks for about $3.4 billion. Bank of America Securities believes that global funds are trying to get in ahead of time before October 8th, and they have bought Hong Kong stocks, American depositary receipts listed in the US, and ETFs linked to overseas A-share indices.Domestic Securities Firms: Market Trend Expected to Continue

From the perspectives of domestic securities firms' October strategy views, the majority of sell-side research analysts agree that the market trend will continue after the holiday, with the stock market's money-making effect remaining strong. Some securities firms believe that the market will experience a "universal rise followed by differentiation."

According to the published reports, it is judged that there has been a significant change in current domestic policy signals, and market expectations have undergone a major reversal. The continuous intensification of domestic demand policies in the future may push the price signals to arrive earlier, and the A-share market trend is expected to reach a major turning point.

In its October strategy view, Guoxin Securities analyzed that the current A-share market repair process is relatively fast, with absolute valuations not high. Market sentiment is excited but still has a considerable gap from historical peaks. Additionally, the Hong Kong stock market has also performed outstandingly, with a rapid short covering momentum and an increasing consensus among domestic and foreign capital. The sustainability of the overbought trend after the holiday may become an important observation indicator.

Chen Guo, Chief Strategy Officer at CITIC Securities, said, "We believe that this round of market trend is a rare one that has all three factors of upward revision of profit expectations, decline in risk-free interest rates, and increase in risk preference, so it is not a simple oversold rebound but a reversal." Chen Guo continues to be optimistic about the medium-term market trend. However, he also warns that due to the rapid short-term rise, the market may experience a technical correction at any time after the holiday.

In the view of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the current positions of foreign capital, transactional funds, and small and medium investors are all relatively low, and short-term funds from all sides are pricing optimistic expectations. During the National Day holiday, the progress of the Hong Kong stock market has already taken the lead over A-shares. Therefore, A-shares may experience a concentrated rise after the holiday, repairing the price relationship.