Preface

Before the holiday, the A-share market suddenly experienced a surge in the market, with a staggering 21% increase over five trading days, which has excited many investors. After the frenzy, whether the stock market can continue this bullish momentum after the holiday, or will it face a sudden sharp decline? This is the most concerning question for investors. Under such market sentiment, stock market fluctuations will become more intense and may trigger risks.

In this article, the editor will reveal the driving forces behind this market trend, analyze the future direction of the stock market, and provide you with strategies to cope.

I. Why did the stock market surge before the holiday?

The sudden 21% surge in the A-share market before the holiday is no joke. This situation is like everyone waiting quietly in line for the bus to depart, and suddenly someone shouts "Get on the bus!" and everyone rushes in.

The stock market suddenly became as excited as if it had been injected with chicken blood, with several consecutive daily limit rises, and the entire securities sector was in a frenzy. The most direct reason behind this, in addition to the market being suppressed for too long, is of course the support of policies.

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On the one hand, market sentiment has been suppressed for too long. Several months of sluggish market conditions have gradually collapsed investors' mentality. Suddenly, a piece of good news lands, like a person who has been suppressed for a long time suddenly seeing the dawn, and funds immediately pour out, throwing money in without even looking. This situation is like a spring, the tighter it is pressed, the stronger the rebound.

In terms of policy, with the introduction of a series of national support policies, market sentiment was quickly ignited, and everyone felt that this was the "entry ticket" given by the stock market. Naturally, all kinds of funds poured in at once, fearing to miss this wave of the market.

There are also many problems behind this. A 21% increase in five days, to be honest, is a bit outrageous. Is the market really ready to accept such a rapid increase? Many people didn't have time to think carefully and hurriedly jumped into this rising "high-speed car".But this surge may well conceal potential hazards in the market: behind the fervor of capital entering the market, is there excessive optimism? How long can this uptrend last? After all, the stock market is not a daily celebration and can change its face at any time. Will the stock market continue to be so fierce? Market sentiment has been stirred to its peak, but where is the pressure of unrealized gains and gap filling?

II. The hidden dangers of stock market fluctuations: the pressure of unrealized gains and gap filling

The surge before the holiday brought a large amount of "unrealized gains," which is like a group of lottery winners who all feel they have won a big prize. But the question is, can this "prize money" be preserved? The stock market can rise and fall quickly, and it is a place of constant change.

According to historical experience, when the "unrealized gains" in the stock market accumulate to a certain extent, the selling pressure to take profits will inevitably follow. It's like winning money in a casino; if you don't leave, you will eventually be "counter-attacked." As the number of profit-makers in the market increases, they will sooner or later start to cash in their profits, and once the selling wave begins, the stock market is like being pressed on the "emergency brake."

Moreover, there is an interesting phenomenon in the stock market: gaps. A few days of continuous sharp rises have left the market with three gaps, which are like an unfulfilled pit that will eventually be filled. According to the history of A-shares, there is hardly any gap that will not be filled.

When the market is surging, many people may overlook these details, but the fact is that if the gaps are not filled, there will be no peace of mind. Without filling the gaps, the bull market will find it difficult to have lasting momentum, and there will be a wave of decline sooner or later to fill these blanks.

The short-term profit effect has made the market extremely fragile. Once there is a slight change in market sentiment, this selling wave may erupt instantly. In other words, the current stock market seems to be booming, but the risks accumulated behind it are also increasing.

When everyone is busy trying to make quick money, do they realize that the market has been quietly "laying mines" behind the scenes? Will the market continue to rise after the holiday, or will the cashing in of unrealized gains become the last straw that breaks the camel's back for the stock market?

III. Post-holiday trends: Analysis of the possibilities of stock market rises and falls

Can the stock market continue to surge wildly after the holiday as it did before the holiday? Many people are looking forward to it, but the market never plays by the rules. In the short term, the stock market may continue to strengthen under the inertia of market sentiment. After all, it has just experienced an exciting surge, and everyone still has a trace of "bull market" illusion in their hearts.How long this wave of sentiment can last is really hard to say. There is a classic saying in the A-share market: "The more it rises, the more it falls." Risks are already lurking behind every sell order.

Moreover, regarding that pile of unrealized gains, everyone made a fortune before the holiday, but don't forget, these paper "unrealized gains" will eventually need to be cashed out. Anyone who sees their profits increase rapidly will inevitably want to take profits early and "lock in their gains."

When those funds start to realize profits, the market's buying power will be hard to support, and sell orders will flood in like a flood. At that time, the pressure on the stock market will increase dramatically. After all, the stock market is supported by the balance of buying and selling, and once it is out of balance, the market will face the possibility of a short-term correction.

At the same time, it's not just the pressure of the unrealized gains, but also the continuous gaps that have not been filled, which are like time bombs. Almost every gap in the history of A-shares will be filled, let alone three gaps this time. If the market continues to rise, the pressure to fill the holes will become greater and greater.

After the holiday, if there is not enough capital to continue to push the market higher, the speed of the sentiment reversal will be beyond imagination. Investors are still discussing the surge before the holiday, but the selling tide may also be not far away, waiting to "teach a lesson" to those who do not take profits in time.

The multiple uncertainties of the market outlook have already made the post-holiday trend full of suspense. When the unrealized gains are cashed out, and when the gaps are filled, these are all key factors affecting the future trend. So how to find the rhythm in the changing market and avoid blindly following the trend?

IV. Investors' response: calm analysis and risk control

The rise and fall of the stock market seems unpredictable, but "calmness" is the hard truth to deal with these fluctuations. Faced with the surge before the holiday, many novice investors may have been taken into the market, wanting to share a cup of this wave of the market.

And this kind of blind following is often the most dangerous operation. Chasing high is easy to get people "trapped". The 20/80 rule in the stock market is not a joke, 80% of people are destined to lose money, only a few sober and rational investors can laugh in the end.

If you want not to be led by the rise and fall of the market, you must first learn to control risks reasonably. Don't let a few Yang lines confuse your mind. Setting a stop-loss point is the most basic operation, otherwise you may lose your way in the stock market and fall into a deep pit by accident.The function of a stop-loss line is to leave oneself a way out, to prevent being caught off guard when market sentiment reverses. After all, A-shares have always been characterized by rapid rises followed by severe declines. At present, the risk of realization of floating profits and the pressure of gaps have already accumulated, and it is wise to remain vigilant.

Next, patience is a must for investors. In the stock market, those who chase rises and kill falls are always the most severely injured. Smart investors often choose to wait and watch, finding a reasonable entry point in market fluctuations, rather than blindly following the crowd's emotions.

Bull markets will always exist, but they won't be bullish every day. In this market now, where gains are quick and risks are high, it is wisest to calm down, wait for the storm to pass, and then consider how to operate. No one can accurately predict the direction of the next wave of the market, but in a market where risks and opportunities coexist, staying alert and being flexible in response to changes are the keys to finding opportunities amidst fluctuations.

Conclusion

The stock market is turbulent, and it is still uncertain whether the post-holiday market will continue the pre-holiday surge, but risks have accumulated. No matter how the market changes, staying calm and managing risks reasonably is the wise choice. Have you also gained something in this market storm?